Archive for the ‘Poker’ Category

Natural Swings In Poker Are Bigger Than You Think

Monday, March 1st, 2010

Many players new to online poker games see articles on ‘variance’, ‘bankroll management’ and ‘downswings’ and assume that these issues do not really concern them. While improving the way you approach poker hands and situations is important – the natural swings inherent in the game of poker is something every new player should take the time to understand. Once you understand the big role that chance plays in the short-term, you will be better able to focus on the best decisions for profit over the long-run, and your poker bankroll can only benefit!

This article will look at a short run of 100 poker sessions for 2 players, first for cash games and then for 1-table Sit N Go Tournaments. We will show you how the outcome of 1 ‘coin-flip’ and 1 ‘cold-deck’ situation makes a huge difference to the profits of each player, before briefly explaining how bankroll management can be used to manage these swings. We will use realistic but rounded numbers for each example to keep the math as straight forward as possible.

Cash Games:

After 100 sessions of $50 buy-in No-Limit Holdem, our players have earned a steady 5 blinds per 100 hand session… giving each of them an overall profit of $250, this is not high – but remember we are talking about beginners learning the game here!

Now for one of the players we reverse the outcome of a coin-flip situation, say a flush-draw + over cards vs a pair all-in on the flop. With some dead money in the pot our player originally scooped a pot of $110 here, only in this example the draws missed and that same pot went to the other player.

Add to this a reversal of a KK vs AA situation, first time our player had the aces and won, in this example our player had the Kings and lost – a $50 minus instead of a plus being another $100 off of total winnings.

After reversing just 2 hands from 100 sessions of 100 hands each, one of our players only made $40 over the entire time. These players may be equally skilled, equally disciplined and playing the same kind of opponents – but the outcome of just 2 hands can have an extremely large effect.

Sit N Goes

Here we will reverse the outcome of 1 bubble hand for one player, and then add a ‘cold-deck’ situation on top. For a baseline let us assume 100 Sit N Go Tournaments at $10 buy-in with a 15% ROI giving profit of $150.

In our bubble coin flip (say, Ace-King vs QQ) our player loses instead of wins, getting nothing instead of going on as a huge chip lead to win the $50 first prize. Next we bring in the AA vs KK situation – again reversing the favorable outcome and missing out on that 1st prize. Two simple hands going in a different direction to the originals have wiped $100 of our player’s profits away. Make these wins for a different player – on top of their already recorded profit – and it is plain to see how a new player could perceive a 25% return as ‘easy’.

Variance, Swings And Your Poker Bankroll

Acknowledging that the swings in poker are not only an inherent part of the game, but have a very large effect over the short-term, can be useful for new players learning the game. Firstly, it should be clear that playing with only a small proportion of your bankroll per game can help protect you from big swings of fortune. Bankroll management applies to every player who wishes to be profitable over the long term.

In addition to the money management, the examples above illustrate that making the right decisions will lead to profit over time – regardless of the outcome of individual hands or sessions. When you review your hands the right question to ask is ‘will this make me money over time?’ if the answer is yes then the outcome this time is actually irrelevant.

Poker And Gambling Advice That Wins In Real Life

Sunday, July 26th, 2009

Two days ago, I stopped at a red light in Long Beach, California. Strangely, I was thinking about the second part of this series when I noticed a man crossing a street. I was startled. He looked exactly George Hardie.

Now, Hardie is a very prominent person, politically active, founder of the Bicycle Casino near Los Angeles in 1984, former president of the California Card Club Association, and often credited with forging the path toward modern poker operations.

Fine. But the man crossing the street walked without particular confidence. He was holding a bag of groceries. He seemed sad and uncertain. Then the light changed, and I drove on, having determined that this wasn’t George Hardie. The closer I’d looked, the more differences I’d spotted in their appearances.

But that’s not the point. For a moment I’d thought it was Hardie. Then I started thinking about an important poker-to-real-life link that I teach. I’ll get to that in a minute. First, we need to acknowledge that maybe the man I’d seen had never been physically or mentally capable of great achievements. Who knows? But what if he had been? What if circumstances simply had not collided in the right ways, at the right moments, to spark his interest in achieving? Or what if his interests were sparked but, again, circumstances had not collided in the right ways at the right moments, to allow him to achieve?

How I Was Almost Retarded

I’ll tell you how this relates to poker, but first let me share something that happened to me a long time ago. I almost didn’t end up being “the Mad Genius of Poker,” you see. There was really no reason for me to begin analyzing poker strategy, programming artificially intelligent players on computer, writing books, or speaking before large audiences. I could have just as easily ended up retarded.

Don’t be so shocked. Sure, I know that most retarded people have little choice. We cherish them for living their lives as fully as they can. We feel fortunate that we’ve been blessed with better brains. Most people are never faced with, in essence, having to make a decision about whether to be retarded or not – but I was. Someday, maybe I’ll tell you the whole story, but right now, here’s briefly what happened.

I flunked the sixth grade at William Smith Elementary School in Aurora, Colorado. And justice was served, because I deserved to flunk. I could do complicated math in my head, but I’d never learned to go up to the blackboard and follow the procedures. I liked astronomy and knew all the planets, but my grade school teachers had no idea about this. All they saw was a totally withdrawn kid who chewed pencil after pencil until the splinters could finally be swallowed. All they saw was a social outcast who hid alone in far corners of the schoolyard during recess. All they saw was a boy who daydreamed all through class, did no homework, and paid no attention to anything. To them, the boy seemed retarded.

A Good Hand For The Young “Mad Genius”

And the boy did not want to escape from the cocoon of the retarded, because to him it was sheltering. There was no responsibility. You could escape deep within yourself and fantasize about many wondrous things that became the bigger reality. I was there; I was that boy; I did this escaping and sought this comfort. And it wasn’t as if you were feigning retardation for the comfort; you truly were becoming retarded; you didn’t think there was anything more to be. You didn’t know how the real world worked, because the real world wasn’t real. Everything conjured up inside you was real. And you didn’t share it. And so you faded. I was there. I faded.

And then the day came after flunking the sixth grade where I sat in a class for “backward” kids in a semi-hidden room with a door in the back of a regular classroom. It was a shameful place where everyday you were humiliated walking through the normal kids whenever you entered or exited.

One day, a young woman teacher passed out tests to everyone in our slow class. These, I later learned, were intended to further separate us, weeding out the merely deficient from the truly retarded. Normally, I would just stare at the tests. Sometimes, I would just randomly mark multiple choice answers without reading the questions. Tests were an unwelcome discipline that invaded my daydreams.

But then there was that spark – a circumstance colliding in the right way at the right moment. And I focused on the first question and it was easy. And all the questions were so very, very easy for me. And while all others in the class toiled and were baffled and struggled through their allotted 15 minutes of mental torture – with the teacher reading the questions to the majority who couldn’t do it for themselves, I filled out the correct answers in perhaps two minutes. I raced against myself to see how rapidly I could accomplish this.

Drawing Out

And, in one strange and surrealistic moment that is indelible in my mind, I did not wait for the tests to be gathered, but sprang instead from my chair and marched to the teacher’s desk. She seemed stunned that I had risen to violate her space.

“I’m done,” is all I said.

She grudgingly looked at my paper. Then she seem perplexed, almost astonished. Perhaps an event she had long fantasized had been made real, and she played her part as she had imagined it. “You don’t belong here,” she said. “I’m going to get you out.” And she did – the next day.

You see, in that moment, I had chosen not to be retarded. Oh, sure, we can argue about whether it would have been true retardation – I know it wouldn’t have been. But I might have lapsed further into a world within myself, probably never to escape. But I drew out. Hearing my teacher say, “You don’t belong here,” opened up everything to me in a moment that might never have been. After that I craved praise and began to believe I could do things that others couldn’t. Believing it helped it grow real.

My high school years were bizarre. I still never developed discipline to do much homework, but I became so advanced in some areas that a few teachers thought I was a prodigy and even devoted their classes to discussions about my actions and my writings. Another story for another time. But, clearly, I could have been struggling to cross the street in Long Beach, bewildered, unknown, unliked, unapproachable. It just wasn’t the card I was dealt on the river – the card that changed everything.

Poker, Too

It’s the same way, you know, in poker. Think about this. Every year thousands of players come to the casinos to take poker seriously. They’re experimenting. Maybe they’ve heard the truth that some people make their livings playing poker. I’m betting they don’t completely believe it, but they’re going to give it a try.

Most of them fail and lose interest. It’s not that they’re not smart enough to win, they just don’t know enough. And maybe they get unlucky, just to make it worse. So, they become occasional players or stop playing altogether. A few, though – not necessarily even players with the best strategy in the beginning – get lucky. Their confidence soars. They hang around. Their lives are changed forever, because they happened to find the right games in the beginning, be dealt the right cards in the beginning, or make a borderline decision to persevere rather than go off in quest of other challenges or to sink lower into lives more miserable.

That’s poker, my friends. It’s the man crossing the street in Long Beach who wasn’t George Hardie and it’s you and it’s I. It’s all around us, poker, life – everywhere. Everything. Today, I’ve shared a little about myself and my bout with “retardation” in the sixth grade. I hope you’ll keep it confidential, because others might not understand. They’ll make fun of me – and I’m pretty sensitive about that, because I’ve always tried to shy away from the spotlight. Thanks for understanding.

Today’s Poker And Real-life Lesson

Last time, as I began to rewrite and re-examine the concepts behind Mike Caro University of Poker, Gaming, and Life Strategy as explained in a two-part feature in Casino Player many years ago, we dealt with two important life-strategy elements. We learned that (1) “the cards” probably won’t break even in your lifetime; and that (2) you should never try to get even for a particular poker session or a life experience.

That meant that you need to understand that there’s nothing you can do about the luck you have in poker or in life. It’s not your job to make sure the odds even out or to whine about it if they don’t. Just keep making the best quality decisions you can, over and over, no matter what, and you’ll have the best shot of getting as far as you can in life or in poker.

And, by not trying to get even for a particular poker session or a setback in real-life, you’re able to plow ahead seeking gains wherever and whenever they happen – today, tomorrow, next year. Just make the right decisions, be willing to accept losses and setbacks, and keep moving ahead. Moving ahead and getting even are two entirely different concepts. You are always where you are, and every step forward from that point is simply a step forward. Period.

So, let’s move ahead…

3. Never make anything worse. Sure, it sounds obvious? But guess what? I’ve never met anyone who didn’t make things worse sometimes, including myself. People get angry, and they make things worse. They lose at business or at romance, and they make things worse. It’s because they’re feeling so miserable that those extra losses don’t seem to register. In gambling, I call this dangerous practice crossing the threshold of misery. Here’s how it works.

A player sits down at the poker table thinking that the worst that can happen is he’ll lose $500. Everything goes wrong and suddenly he’s losing $1,000. He has now crossed the threshold of misery and maximized his ability to register pain. Losing $1,114 doesn’t feel any worse than losing $1,000. That extra $114 doesn’t matter, and so he concentrates less and plays worse. It happens all the time in life. Romance does this to you. Unexpected misfortune does this to you. Decisions that would normally matter (like that extra $114 in poker) don’t seem to matter by comparison. But these decisions all add up. In life people who are heartbroken sometimes make the worst business decisions imaginable. Those decisions don’t seem to matter much compared to the heartbreak. And those decisions all add up, and eventually they will matter.

In poker, many lifelong losing players would actually be lifelong winners if they simply never made things worse. Worse out of anger, worse out of exasperation, worse out of apathy, worse out of self-pity, worse out of temper. If it doesn’t matter now, it will matter tomorrow. So from now on, promise yourself you will never make things worse. You will never make things worse.

4. What you’ve already invested doesn’t matter. Too many poker players damage their bankrolls by calculating how much they personally “invested” in the pot before making their decision about whether to bet or fold. Don’t do that. The pot, all that money you’re competing for, is simply there. It doesn’t matter where it came from or how much of it you invested. It wouldn’t matter whether it had originally been all yours or whether the players just happened to find it forgotten on the table. The pot belongs to no one right now.

Same in life. It doesn’t matter how much money, how much time, how much effort you have invested in a project. Say you purchased land for $200,000. One morning you wake up and it’s only worth $100,000. That same day, someone offers you $160,000. You should accept this offer, because you’re not losing $40,000, you’re gaining $60,000. That’s because what the land used to be worth doesn’t matter, and what you’ve invested doesn’t matter. You don’t need to win on this investment. The trick is to make profitable decisions again and again and let lifelong success take care of itself. Ignoring taxes, write-offs or anything else that will complicate this example, the land is worth $100,000 now. You can get $160,000 by selling. Selling is the right decision, and it has value–in this case, $60,000.

Poker: When To Hesitate

Tuesday, July 21st, 2009

In poker, the time to hesitate is when you really need more time to resolve a close decision. Often things will occur to you given a little extra time. Or, under the extra pressure, your opponent may provide you with a tell. You might occasionally also hesitate for deception, so that alert opponents can’t determine that your pause always means you have a close decision.

Also, sometimes when you make a final free bet with a big hand, you’ll be more likely to be called if you don’t bet instantly. Well, if you don’t bet ALMOST instantly, I mean. Because both a bet delayed for a few extra seconds and an unreasonably quick one are apt to make your opponents suspicious and more likely to be called.

But, unless there’s a specific reason to hesitate, you should usually make all your free bets, calls, and raises crisply and confidently — because this enhances your image and speeds up the game at Rainbow Riches.

UltimateBet Step Tournament Strategy

Monday, July 20th, 2009

As most of you have probably noticed so far, UB has added a Step Sit and Go program to try and earn your way to this year’s World Series of Poker. In fact you can do it for as little as .10 cents. Starting with Step 1, you try and finish in the top 2 to earn your step 2 ticket. From there on every step is the same.

Get in the top 2, move on to the next step. Finish in the top 3 or 4, and you get to retry the step you were currently playing. The best way to put it is finish in the top 4 of any step, and you lose nothing. Sometimes when you finish 5th or 6th, you just get bumped down a step. So if you are playing a Step 6 and finish 5th out 9 people which is pretty easy to do, you just get bumped down to step 5 and just have to work to get back to step 6. The Step Program is as follows:

Step 1=.10
Step 2=.30
Step 3=$1
Step 4=$3
Step 5=$10
Step 6=$30
Step 7=$90
Step 8=$250
Step 9=$750
Step 10=$2250

When you win Step 10 you win a $12k WSOP Package, and if you finish 2-4th you get a good amount of cash back.

It is important to remember when playing these steps that you aren’t playing to win, and that getting 2nd place is the same as 1st. It is not your job to take people out, just to move on to the next step. If you hold 55 in the Big Blind, with 6 k in chips, blinds are 200 400, and someone with 4600 shoves; you might consider folding if its 3 handed, depending on the other stack size. I’d much rather make someone make a tough call, than make one myself.

There is definitely a flow to these steps. Almost everyone at the table can see that finishing 5th or better is going to get them some kind of ticket, so therefore you can assume that in a 9 handed SNG, the bubble begins at 6 handed!!! Because of this, a lot of people are playing tight.

Rightfully so as the blinds mean nothing. The other side of the coin though is noticing this and exploiting it. Get a feel for who you can 3 bet light. For me it’s normally the guy who has chipped up a little, as he feels he is the most likely to move on to the next step. Anyone who has played SNG’s knows what I’m talking about, when it comes to exploiting the bubble. It’s just in these steps that the bubble occurs so much faster.

In addition to this exciting new way to try and make it to the WSOP, you can also make it to Aruba, by winning Step 1 through Step 10. Start at Step 1 and work your way all the way to Step 10 and win Step 10 and you will get a $8,500 package to Aruba. This promotion is only available to the first 10 people who accomplish this. Good luck everyone, and I will definitely see you at these Steps.

Daniel Negreanu: Stupid players go out fast

Friday, April 17th, 2009

Top earner on the World Poker Tour (WPT) Daniel Negreanu has stated that stupidity will lead to a fast exit from tournaments.

In an article for The Grands Rapid Press, the poker ace told of one competition he was in where he made a good run and then blew most of his chips in one go.

He cites three examples of “stupid play” in tournaments, the first of which is bluffing at the wrong time.

Negreanu’s second tip is not to call a large bet with a weak hand in an attempt to catch an opponent out.

Finally, he said that gambling on a “coin flip” with a large amount of chips is often a poor move and can be disastrous.

To avoid falling into these traps, Kid Poker recommends keeping an eye on the blinds to avoid overbetting and getting impatient.

In addition, he stated that making risky moves early on can be an error and said it is advisable to save risky plays for later on in the event.

Negreanu has won four World Series of Poker bracelets and currently has earned more money than any other pro on the WPT, having amassed over $5 million in winnings.

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